Asian League · resolved market
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-07-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c32f1d2377893dae4c4e58012a7a3f8379b983f52ef64e98b1bfb829a3edb5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 14c | 6,223$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.82 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…775dbacked Yes | 16c | 4,375$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 12c | 3,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…9b21backed Yes | 3c | 2,949$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 15c | 2,300$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Yes | 10c | 2,294$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.12 | 193 | 40.9%79 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 5c | 2,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,600$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f3…0eacbacked Yes | 18c | 1,021$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Yes | 13c | 868.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 6c | 866$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 11c | 705.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 16c | 650$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Yes | 12c | 507$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…168dbacked Yes | 13c | 403.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 15c | 344.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 143 | 10.5%15 W · 128 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 14c | 339$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e8…0039backed Yes | 12c | 299.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Yes | 10c | 269.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Yes | 10c | 269.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0e…38bbbacked Yes | 10c | 257.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…c83cbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2677…fe76backed Yes | 5c | 240.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…fc85backed Yes | 15c | 233.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8b…7529backed Yes | 13c | 170.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 168.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 78c | 161.55$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 16c | 160.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Yes | 24c | 136.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…1668backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Yes | 13c | 127.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 14c | 119.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…b543backed Yes | 13c | 112.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 14c | 104.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 14c | 102.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 15c | 93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 80c | 82.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed Yes | 13c | 78.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 78c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 326 | 54%176 W · 150 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-07-11?this page
- Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-07-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.