Fifa International · resolved market
Moldova vs. Lithuania: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c3e6412f2af4829223dd7f040ad578e1d9c2479ed37ba9ad4b944c2d0f0c6ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,572$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.95 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 36c | 1,395$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Over | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 45c | 446.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Over | 38c | 390.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 62c | 364.09$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.36 | 136 | 43.4%59 W · 77 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 47c | 321.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 35c | 288.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 48.1%74 W · 80 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 62c | 251.5$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 64c | 194.78$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 32c | 175.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 63c | 172.88$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 62c | 153.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 32c | 153.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 135.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 68c | 126.52$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 61c | 123.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 13c | 104.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…a301backed Under | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 29c | 87.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…6f38backed Over | 38c | 86.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…23cfbacked Under | 23c | 84.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 16c | 83.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Under | 70c | 80.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 25c | 78.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 38c | 76.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 75.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038a…2188backed Over | 33c | 75.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 61c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 63c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Over | 18c | 57.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 467 | 43.3%202 W · 265 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 61c | 47.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 47c | 44.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 39c | 43.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…d2e3backed Over | 45c | 39.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0922…d953backed Under | 66c | 38.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 39c | 36.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 39c | 36.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 63c | 34.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…b82ebacked Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Under | 72c | 20.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717b…5160backed Under | 66c | 19.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8a…84fbbacked Under | 64c | 19.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Under | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 233 | 55.4%129 W · 104 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…1391backed Under | 63c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 70c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 341 | 44.3%151 W · 190 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moldova vs. Lithuania: O/U 2.5this page
- Moldova vs. Lithuania: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Moldova vs. Lithuania: O/U 1.5Over won
- Moldova vs. Lithuania: O/U 3.5Under won
- Moldova vs. Lithuania: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.