Premier League · resolved market
Will Leicester vs. Brighton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c448e795458b0e478abd1020862033d49aedca312f6469290901dcefdb5df90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,298$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.26 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 26c | 672.76$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.84 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 15c | 530$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.2 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…a72ebacked No | 78c | 473.08$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 77c | 306.96$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.36 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed No | 75c | 291.02$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.27 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…01a0backed Yes | 36c | 281.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 64c | 257.71$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.93 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 23c | 221.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.92 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 22c | 220.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.08 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 23c | 154.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.64 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…79c9backed Yes | 24c | 147.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f75…1143backed Yes | 23c | 135$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…008cbacked No | 77c | 135$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb90d…7db5backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -7.7wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…9908backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…6d8cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba9…6baabacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…c128backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…3facbacked Yes | 23c | 62.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 23c | 51.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 23c | 46.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked No | 77c | 43.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…8959backed No | 78c | 35.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 76c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0e7cbacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…4957backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -5.3wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…2646backed No | 77c | 18.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…4c75backed No | 78c | 13.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leicester vs. Brighton end in a draw?this page
- Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08?No won
- Will Leicester win on 2024-12-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.