TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

San Diego State Aztecs vs. New Mexico Lobos

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New Mexico Lobosof San Diego State Aztecs, New Mexico Lobos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,639

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,256 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked New Mexico Lobos62c7,872$4,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,003.915,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed San Diego State Aztecs34c7,809$2,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,651.4334943.3%151 W · 198 L-15.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed New Mexico Lobos46c6,682$3,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,592.621,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego State Aztecs23c4,923$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.451,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked San Diego State Aztecs29c4,350$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.811,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego State Aztecs22c3,310$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.931,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New Mexico Lobos61c2,715$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.054,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed San Diego State Aztecs46c2,270$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.922,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed San Diego State Aztecs33c1,689$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.92,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego State Aztecs47c1,552$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.523,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked San Diego State Aztecs49c1,483$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.081,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed San Diego State Aztecs27c1,391$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.0846446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed New Mexico Lobos50c1,378$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.3670936.1%256 W · 453 L-27.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Diego State Aztecs47c1,355$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.083,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked San Diego State Aztecs29c1,342$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.581,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego State Aztecs58c1,204$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.075,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed San Diego State Aztecs40c1,181$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.492,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed San Diego State Aztecs46c987.7$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.3425946.3%120 W · 139 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked San Diego State Aztecs17c735.35$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0133438.9%130 W · 204 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed San Diego State Aztecs40c688.02$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.7493247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed New Mexico Lobos55c620.4$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.1855840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed San Diego State Aztecs17c571.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.512230.3%37 W · 85 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb011…b9b7backed San Diego State Aztecs30c553.21$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.64714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-69.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked New Mexico Lobos56c523.47$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.021,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f4…87bdbacked San Diego State Aztecs48c517.63$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.824245.2%19 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed New Mexico Lobos49c504.74$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.923464.7%22 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked San Diego State Aztecs39c492.75$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4277142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed San Diego State Aztecs46c482.39$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.91,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed New Mexico Lobos54c385.51$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3379448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed San Diego State Aztecs30c324.25$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.632,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00ed…0a9fbacked New Mexico Lobos50c316.09$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.476251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked San Diego State Aztecs44c300.71$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.282,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed San Diego State Aztecs23c284.49$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.351,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked New Mexico Lobos72c263.58$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.84,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked San Diego State Aztecs21c201$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2684854.5%462 W · 386 L+32.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked San Diego State Aztecs42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8455532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed New Mexico Lobos54c197.4$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.441,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New Mexico Lobos52c176$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.482,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cca…0122backed San Diego State Aztecs49c160.52$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed San Diego State Aztecs39c158.76$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.926740.3%27 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed San Diego State Aztecs22c154.21$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.171,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed San Diego State Aztecs45c152.75$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7481528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed San Diego State Aztecs24c135.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0235852%186 W · 172 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed San Diego State Aztecs27c108.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.751,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed New Mexico Lobos24c99.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.752,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked San Diego State Aztecs56c99.6$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.41,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee28…8266backed San Diego State Aztecs15c99.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9316436%59 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked San Diego State Aztecs31c99.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7734343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed New Mexico Lobos56c99.14$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6244549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed New Mexico Lobos54c99.13$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.638351.7%198 W · 185 L+0.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43c…d7c3backed New Mexico Lobos55c99.12$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2849157.2%281 W · 210 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8510…57e6backed San Diego State Aztecs35c95.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.55056%28 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda60…595cbacked New Mexico Lobos55c90.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.557045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed San Diego State Aztecs45c82.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed San Diego State Aztecs45c79.31$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6978052.2%407 W · 373 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed New Mexico Lobos31c52.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6215551.6%80 W · 75 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked San Diego State Aztecs47c52.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.786747.8%32 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New Mexico Lobos76c41.41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.941,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked San Diego State Aztecs45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1333445.8%153 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed New Mexico Lobos54c39.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.216755.7%93 W · 74 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed New Mexico Lobos51c39.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.433,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked San Diego State Aztecs48c37.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8436535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed New Mexico Lobos67c37.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2215246.7%71 W · 81 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed New Mexico Lobos32c37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1619522.1%43 W · 152 L-36.3wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-53.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked San Diego State Aztecs69c33.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.961553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3817…7d10backed New Mexico Lobos56c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0829845.3%135 W · 163 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed New Mexico Lobos54c27.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.678051.3%41 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed San Diego State Aztecs61c26.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.874459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6786…7cf5backed San Diego State Aztecs74c24.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.28366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked San Diego State Aztecs54c24.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3331666.1%209 W · 107 L+24.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked San Diego State Aztecs68c21.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.897751.9%40 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked San Diego State Aztecs46c21.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0348551.1%248 W · 237 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea52…b082backed New Mexico Lobos57c20.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.981752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fc…314dbacked New Mexico Lobos71c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.045947.5%28 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid+29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b9c…da16backed New Mexico Lobos53c20.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.715066%99 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe496…4d8bbacked New Mexico Lobos56c18.84$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3617945.8%82 W · 97 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6483…4fc8backed New Mexico Lobos76c13.77$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.