Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ca6e479f61a279cb3bb7f57eda8ab64699b6709c5e163cd06f586a01ede7af1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,073 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 0c | 47,973$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.17 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 16,219$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.33 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,066$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.21 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,109$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa458…f08dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,716$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 7,221$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 1c | 6,967$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…4774backed Yes | 1c | 5,903$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 1c | 4,188$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 2c | 3,150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 2,747$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…0efebacked Yes | 1c | 2,211$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 1c | 1,760$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…0f11backed Yes | 1c | 1,591$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 1c | 1,281$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 2c | 1,131$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,112$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 2c | 879.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 4c | 567.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 4c | 508.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 3c | 469.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 3c | 437.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 407.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 397.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 387.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 357$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 343.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 313.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 20c | 302.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 280.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 9c | 264.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 14c | 262.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 7c | 222.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 16c | 192.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 8c | 187.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf46…db67backed Yes | 6c | 164.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 17c | 145$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 16c | 128.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe33…47d8backed Yes | 11c | 119.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…631cbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 13c | 96.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 12c | 84.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 13c | 77.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 74c | 32.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…4f5bbacked No | 72c | 28.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 72c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b9…0c62backed No | 78c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.