TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,382 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33b6…597bbacked No0c21,650$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.46267.7%2 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x53fe…5b95backed No3c4,767$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.751421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-62.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a63…3b80backed No0c4,704$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No1c2,161$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0770%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No75c1,265$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.991967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes18c890.9$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.344,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No9c725$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7136819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No3c648.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4396313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes23c630.48$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.141,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes17c569.67$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.1915911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes17c534.15$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.3552935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No18c526.09$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8953925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No6c473.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1739810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No52c462.98$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.5786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c457$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.436,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c426.8$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.4817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaffc…ce04backed No33c394$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.743810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2588…48babacked Yes29c392.93$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.053855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes19c381.79$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.071,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes58c350.95$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8126265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bfe…b127backed Yes34c343.46$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.687614.5%11 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes73c343.3$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0916738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No79c265.01$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2091,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes46c260.35$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.336033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef4…9729backed Yes78c241$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.911963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+137.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No67c234.04$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.881,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f66…041fbacked Yes21c228.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.321546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-11.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes27c208.42$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.952245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes10c200$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1791,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes25c196.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.923540%14 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes67c186.79$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.797653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed No52c176.92$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes29c174.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes18c169.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No15c162.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes33c152.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2710650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes19c149.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.0417433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c148.24$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e87…ab6cbacked No68c145.38$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No45c143.17$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.371,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes21c141.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.9849941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes14c134.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4226828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa458…f08dbacked Yes20c132.95$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.95633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes15c132.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.01966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+61.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No78c127.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c126.95$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.093,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5327…86cbbacked Yes78c126.02$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.322673.1%19 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c118.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.537,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No72c117.54$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.711,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c109.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes14c109.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.753333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes24c105.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2417338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c102.66$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.328,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8626236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7126827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.952,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed Yes25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.995812.1%7 W · 51 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes34c99.52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1125029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked No67c97.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.256939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c95$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.697,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No69c91$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2231868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3906…f74bbacked Yes28c89.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.796053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes36c89.77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7718035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No57c86$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6716355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa251…4774backed Yes21c83.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.381346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c81.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.113,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6025536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x505e…1c76backed Yes17c76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.953839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f2…09babacked No66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No53c75.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.851,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes59c72.63$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.663,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf2…559cbacked Yes35c71.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.581030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes16c70$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5919617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1173…4dbfbacked Yes43c67.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.411457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes15c66.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6726426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes16c64.72$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3633232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No78c64.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes39c63.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.754850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes56c59.84$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.275141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes32c56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0116532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db6…4894backed Yes21c55.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.874339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes24c55.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1616432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x26d4…0a37backed Yes38c53.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.292479.2%19 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7638…b72dbacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed No79c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.512735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.511619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…14debacked Yes31c49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.814535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No28c48.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.441,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07c2…7a17backed No67c46.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.614339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba8…8d3cbacked No67c44.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.799055.6%50 W · 40 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes24c42.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3243021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x325e…4e2dbacked Yes24c41.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d8…5e9abacked No80c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed No67c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.819260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.337521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…dbe8backed Yes52c38.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.674353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47fa…5bbcbacked No72c38.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ef…0cf9backed No52c38.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.816464.1%41 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.