Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6691d662e80c9929fd85f57af873ce8223f4bf9feedc1888c1fd4087667a1cd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,382 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 0c | 21,650$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53fe…5b95backed No | 3c | 4,767$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a63…3b80backed No | 0c | 4,704$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 2,161$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 1,265$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.9 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 890.9$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.34 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 9c | 725$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 648.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 630.48$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.14 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 17c | 569.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.19 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 17c | 534.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.35 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 18c | 526.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 473.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 52c | 462.98$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 457$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 426.8$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed No | 33c | 394$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.74 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 29c | 392.93$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.05 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 19c | 381.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.07 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 58c | 350.95$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.81 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 34c | 343.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.68 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 73c | 343.3$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 79c | 265.01$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 46c | 260.35$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.33 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 78c | 241$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 234.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…041fbacked Yes | 21c | 228.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 27c | 208.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.9 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 25c | 196.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 67c | 186.79$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 52c | 176.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 29c | 174.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.39 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 18c | 169.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.8 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 15c | 162.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 33c | 152.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 148.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…ab6cbacked No | 68c | 145.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 45c | 143.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 21c | 141.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 14c | 134.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa458…f08dbacked Yes | 20c | 132.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 15c | 132.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 78c | 127.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 126.95$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 78c | 126.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 118.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 117.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 14c | 109.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 24c | 105.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 102.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 34c | 99.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 67c | 97.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 69c | 91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 36c | 89.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 57c | 86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…4774backed Yes | 21c | 83.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 81.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 17c | 76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 53c | 75.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 72.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…559cbacked Yes | 35c | 71.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…4dbfbacked Yes | 43c | 67.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 16c | 64.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 39c | 63.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 56c | 59.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 21c | 55.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 24c | 55.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed Yes | 38c | 53.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…b72dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 28c | 48.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 67c | 46.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 24c | 42.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…4e2dbacked Yes | 24c | 41.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 52c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…5bbcbacked No | 72c | 38.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 52c | 38.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.