Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1b6a7ea6f7e236c532eec0c482139e254f92203d2680f36dd40a91fba770b4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,015 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 1c | 2,211$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,707$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 1,625$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.49 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 1,374$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 1,181$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 5c | 999.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…04debacked Yes | 2c | 905$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 817.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 744.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 565.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 539.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 457$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 10c | 427.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 53c | 361.22$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 27c | 336.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 8c | 319.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 31c | 309.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 307.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 23c | 257.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked Yes | 38c | 255.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…fec8backed Yes | 10c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 235.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 14c | 220.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 35c | 207.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 205.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 61c | 199.04$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 35c | 185.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 16c | 174.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 164.91$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 27c | 156.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…4310backed Yes | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 149.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 28c | 146.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 74c | 143$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 10c | 137.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked No | 74c | 135.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 119.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 119.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 116.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…5a62backed Yes | 28c | 110.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 108$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 107.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 57c | 104.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 32c | 104.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 29c | 102.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 98.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 53c | 92.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 20c | 85.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 12c | 84.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 82.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 34c | 73.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 23c | 72.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 31c | 71.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 70.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c07…6bc8backed Yes | 31c | 65.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 52c | 63.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 31c | 63.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…559cbacked Yes | 40c | 59.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…fcd4backed Yes | 39c | 59.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 22c | 56.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 60c | 56.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 40c | 56.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 53.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…4dbfbacked Yes | 23c | 52.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 37c | 51.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 40c | 50.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 40c | 50.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 78c | 50.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2b…fd54backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…56eebacked Yes | 25c | 47.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 40c | 44.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 44c | 42.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 42.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf83…1ac2backed No | 62c | 41.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 34c | 41.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.