Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd987bc794f9ecf676212cc2755d099aa3ae09229b2c29784736ad165a16760d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,617 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd13f…4906backed Yes | 26c | 8,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…5bb3backed No | 74c | 8,000$5,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,843$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,593$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…e412backed Yes | 19c | 917.6$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 907.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 2c | 769.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 697.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 7c | 684.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 682.96$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 561.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 457$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 401.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 373.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa977…edf0backed Yes | 3c | 318.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 308.38$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 14c | 280.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 8c | 265$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked Yes | 27c | 254.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 11c | 231.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 15c | 220$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 24c | 218.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 71c | 197.45$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 158.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 22c | 136.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 127.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…95dcbacked Yes | 10c | 119.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 76c | 113$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 112.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 15c | 104.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee4…9039backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 28c | 98.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 93.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 24c | 92.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 87.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 29c | 86.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 31c | 80.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 31c | 79.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 26c | 67.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 32c | 63.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 33c | 61.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 26c | 57.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 56.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 21c | 55.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 73c | 54.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 77c | 51.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 66c | 40.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 80c | 40.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d3…3863backed No | 73c | 37.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…bef7backed Yes | 29c | 37.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 71c | 33.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…8cd5backed No | 72c | 32.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…b72dbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…706abacked No | 75c | 20.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8394…8d66backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62df…1411backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 73c | 18.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 73c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.