Stocks · resolved market
Will the SPX opening price on January 5 be between 6,858.47 and 6,927.05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ca9ce7ff65fc6aa3d682a413f22347de4f64503b536e455fdfd77f12dbd9166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa486…25d4backed No | 0c | 9,274$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 6c | 1,785$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 31c | 898.38$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.26 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 1c | 712.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 15c | 503.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 8c | 498.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…d84ebacked Yes | 70c | 430$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 68c | 209.51$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 31c | 180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…b0fdbacked Yes | 68c | 156.18$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 56c | 94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…590ebacked Yes | 67c | 81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 38c | 68.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…7fecbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…b407backed Yes | 61c | 30.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…9d76backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…30e4backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…7a79backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2001…29b8backed Yes | 61c | 28.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 27.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the SPX opening price on January 5 be between 6,858.47 and 6,927.05?this page
- Will the SPX opening price on January 5 be between 6,789.89 and 6,858.47?No won
- Will the SPX opening price on January 5 be between 6,927.05 and 6,995.64?No won
- Will the SPX opening price on January 5 be less than 6,721.30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.