CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5caad41005f25dea731103c8dbb8038f0175eb0d14d38fb213092aa9faa65155
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof FURIA, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,484 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed FURIA | 38c | 3,003$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.97 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389b…8d69backed Astralis | 62c | 1,257$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Astralis | 62c | 1,202$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.76 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Astralis | 62c | 1,195$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.16 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed FURIA | 38c | 899.99$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6867…f8d2backed FURIA | 41c | 739.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Astralis | 60c | 724.53$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.81 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Astralis | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e55…be6fbacked FURIA | 39c | 588.33$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed FURIA | 38c | 554.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 500 | 43%215 W · 285 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked FURIA | 39c | 495$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed FURIA | 39c | 412.67$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.91 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Astralis | 61c | 390.6$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.33 | 161 | 52.8%85 W · 76 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Astralis | 61c | 369.23$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Astralis | 60c | 366$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Astralis | 59c | 349.63$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 461 | 49.9%230 W · 231 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…3fc8backed FURIA | 39c | 331.4$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked FURIA | 40c | 285$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 325 | 36%117 W · 208 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked Astralis | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Astralis | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…025abacked FURIA | 39c | 199.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f0…fff4backed Astralis | 68c | 160$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfe…d83fbacked Astralis | 62c | 147.06$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed FURIA | 30c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Astralis | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e3…7311backed FURIA | 40c | 77.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed FURIA | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Astralis | 61c | 67.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Astralis | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…c49cbacked FURIA | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Astralis | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd468…f6febacked Astralis | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 460 | 42.8%197 W · 263 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Astralis | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 68cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…c767backed FURIA | 40c | 44.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Astralis | 70c | 42.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb43e…fecfbacked Astralis | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa391…dd32backed FURIA | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked FURIA | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 807 | 41.3%333 W · 474 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Astralis | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Astralis | 62c | 31.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…f611backed Astralis | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked FURIA | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161f…d3f4backed Astralis | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…c2babacked Astralis | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 471 | 46.7%220 W · 251 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…0abbbacked Astralis | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Astralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 2 WinnerFURIA won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)FURIA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.