Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Daniil Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cde67bcdb6302fb4c9004a2306d1d692bf23efb25fb7acef1b04d31dc3461a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Marozsan, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Marozsan | 15c | 22,998$3,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,547.63 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Marozsan | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Medvedev | 61c | 3,153$1,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.65 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Marozsan | 35c | 2,825$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Marozsan | 36c | 2,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Marozsan | 30c | 2,360$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.73 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Medvedev | 69c | 1,443$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.19 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Medvedev | 71c | 1,407$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.04 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Marozsan | 31c | 1,200$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Medvedev | 64c | 1,156$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.33 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Marozsan | 16c | 1,081$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.51 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Medvedev | 65c | 650.25$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.25 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Medvedev | 68c | 384.15$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Marozsan | 43c | 291.85$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.62 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Medvedev | 69c | 291.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 79 | 81%64 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Marozsan | 34c | 285.74$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Marozsan | 39c | 259.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Medvedev | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Medvedev | 65c | 153.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Medvedev | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…7fe2backed Medvedev | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Medvedev | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Marozsan | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Medvedev | 68c | 128.61$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Medvedev | 62c | 128.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Marozsan | 24c | 126.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Marozsan | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Marozsan | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Marozsan | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Marozsan | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Marozsan | 34c | 93.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Marozsan | 33c | 75.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Medvedev | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Medvedev | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Marozsan | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Medvedev | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Medvedev | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Medvedev | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Medvedev | 66c | 48.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Marozsan | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Medvedev | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Medvedev | 63c | 31.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Medvedev | 64c | 29.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Medvedev | 69c | 20.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.