Tennis · resolved market
Erste Bank Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cfda7a7582dc25d24e08046d723a87529eeed90f65e8ac387f4d6695e6f31e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Bublik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Bublik | 7c | 15,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 374 | 50%187 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Bublik | 7c | 7,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Bublik | 7c | 5,281$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.01 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bublik | 0c | 4,992$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bublik | 3c | 4,631$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.97 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd34…140dbacked Bublik | 10c | 4,389$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…89a4backed Bublik | 3c | 2,493$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Bublik | 6c | 2,089$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.35 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…f211backed Bublik | 10c | 2,085$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked Bublik | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Bublik | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Bublik | 9c | 1,400$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Bublik | 7c | 1,346$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Bublik | 7c | 1,172$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Bublik | 10c | 1,167$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Bublik | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Bublik | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Bublik | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ab…42a1backed Bublik | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bublik | 7c | 901.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f8…3a3cbacked Bublik | 8c | 869.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Bublik | 1c | 789.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bublik | 6c | 767.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Bublik | 9c | 556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550a…0b68backed Bublik | 10c | 487.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2475…5f8cbacked Bublik | 4c | 444.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Bublik | 4c | 416.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Bublik | 8c | 414.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bublik | 8c | 394.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…e49abacked Bublik | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Bublik | 13c | 312.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Bublik | 10c | 310$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 184 | 39.1%72 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c7…7203backed Bublik | 10c | 229.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Bublik | 11c | 209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Bublik | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cc…b660backed Bublik | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bublik | 7c | 188.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f6…b90cbacked Bublik | 8c | 187.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…cbe5backed Bublik | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Bublik | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…303dbacked Bublik | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Bublik | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Bublik | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.