TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Will Aurora Gaming win PGL Wallachia Season 8?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,076
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,485

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,076 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a57…968cbacked Yes21c949.24$199 inLost-$199.3420043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed No79c928.28$733 inWon+$194.9880742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked No54c447.37$242 inWon+$205.7936041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f22…2935backed Yes46c420.7$194 inLost-$193.526048.3%29 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Yes45c329.01$148 inLost-$148.0573743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Yes14c314.63$46 inLost-$45.5163032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed No55c176.91$97 inWon+$79.6160660.7%368 W · 238 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x810f…643dbacked Yes10c116.97$12 inLost-$11.75945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8992…ed1fbacked No55c114.99$63 inWon+$51.756050%30 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes11c110.42$12 inLost-$11.862751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae1…3769backed Yes27c100$27 inLost-$272920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No73c90$66 inWon+$24.451421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-44.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes31c90$28 inLost-$287646.1%35 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes25c90$22 inLost-$22.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed Yes39c73.84$29 inLost-$28.931644.9%142 W · 174 L-18.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b79…b838backed Yes27c67.98$18 inLost-$18.221931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1304…551ebacked Yes34c66.94$23 inLost-$23.066847.1%32 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41c5…4485backed Yes20c60$12 inLost-$127440.5%30 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes19c56.93$11 inLost-$11.0522363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50d6…f94abacked Yes26c50$13 inLost-$135682.1%46 W · 10 L+10.0wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+25.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x485c…38fbbacked Yes65c22.59$15 inLost-$14.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No69c22.18$15 inWon+$6.86988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick75cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No80c20.12$16 inWon+$4.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked No80c20.11$16 inWon+$4.0236547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1643…6ec8backed No74c19.69$15 inWon+$5.152085%17 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+44.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.