College Football · resolved market
Spread: James Madison (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d48151109c68eb4e7af877e37e69885ceb51baff4cdab218a0d2318293f4773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madisonof James Madison, Texas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed James Madison | 53c | 22,937$12,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,880.44 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked James Madison | 58c | 17,221$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,220.87 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Texas State | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Texas State | 42c | 9,516$3,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,953.1 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Texas State | 47c | 8,400$3,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,948 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Texas State | 47c | 3,500$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Texas State | 44c | 3,085$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.26 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Texas State | 45c | 2,660$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.97 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas State | 43c | 2,091$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.35 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Texas State | 43c | 1,002$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.93 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…ee73backed James Madison | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Texas State | 43c | 757.71$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.54 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Texas State | 47c | 438$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked James Madison | 55c | 408.04$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Texas State | 47c | 170$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed James Madison | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…25e3backed James Madison | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Texas State | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked James Madison | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: James Madison (-6.5)this page
- James Madison vs. Texas StateJames Madison won
- James Madison vs. Texas State: 1H MoneylineJames Madison won
- O/U 55.5Over won
- Spread: James Madison (-7.5)James Madison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.