College Football · resolved market
Spread: James Madison (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x912f942a841315faded955cf0876b083246e2020ca3b3f92475302a8713eb09d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madisonof James Madison, Texas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $830,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $831,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $830,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed James Madison | 49c | 767,320$376,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390,450.49 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texas State | 50c | 477,656$239,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239,584.05 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6b14backed Texas State | 54c | 100,000$54,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,999.98 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Texas State | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Texas State | 51c | 49,989$25,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,494.46 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Texas State | 55c | 32,000$17,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,599.99 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Texas State | 50c | 18,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Texas State | 54c | 17,714$9,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,642.64 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked James Madison | 47c | 16,340$7,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,583.67 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Texas State | 51c | 16,323$8,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,252.88 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed James Madison | 45c | 14,520$6,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,986 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Texas State | 52c | 7,600$3,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,927 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Texas State | 54c | 7,500$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,050 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas State | 51c | 7,068$3,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,575.33 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Texas State | 51c | 7,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed James Madison | 45c | 6,667$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,666.67 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Texas State | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked James Madison | 47c | 4,383$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.65 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Texas State | 54c | 3,126$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.25 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked James Madison | 47c | 3,058$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.39 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Texas State | 51c | 2,714$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.14 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked James Madison | 46c | 1,870$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…881ebacked James Madison | 45c | 1,833$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked James Madison | 48c | 1,653$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.47 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Texas State | 49c | 1,169$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.81 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Texas State | 52c | 770$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Texas State | 51c | 682.92$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.27 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked Texas State | 54c | 682$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.28 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…4cd0backed Texas State | 54c | 334.91$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Texas State | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Texas State | 53c | 233.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…31c8backed James Madison | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…51fcbacked Texas State | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Texas State | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed James Madison | 44c | 150.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Texas State | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Texas State | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…e971backed Texas State | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Texas State | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed James Madison | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Texas State | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11bb…bf79backed Texas State | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Texas State | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a58…a249backed Texas State | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…e67abacked Texas State | 56c | 89.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Texas State | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Texas State | 54c | 74.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc9…4fadbacked Texas State | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Texas State | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Texas State | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked James Madison | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…94d4backed Texas State | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…5be6backed James Madison | 46c | 44.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…e717backed Texas State | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed James Madison | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Texas State | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Texas State | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Texas State | 56c | 19.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Texas State | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: James Madison (-7.5)this page
- James Madison vs. Texas StateJames Madison won
- James Madison vs. Texas State: 1H MoneylineJames Madison won
- O/U 55.5Over won
- Spread: James Madison (-6.5)James Madison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.