TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Cancun: Luis Carlos Alvarez vs Rio Noguchi

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rio Noguchiof Luis Carlos Alvarez, Rio Noguchi
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,144

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d3e…986cbacked Rio Noguchi61c10,000$6,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,903.1763648%305 W · 331 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e88…b235backed Rio Noguchi54c7,061$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,261.388757.5%50 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez38c5,312$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.614,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Luis Carlos Alvarez46c4,082$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.3111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0fd…3798backed Luis Carlos Alvarez1c2,358$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5811618.1%21 W · 95 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked Rio Noguchi71c1,773$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.6820155.7%112 W · 89 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7170…b37bbacked Rio Noguchi69c1,034$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.361752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Rio Noguchi66c969.73$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.023,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Luis Carlos Alvarez39c814.88$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.361,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Luis Carlos Alvarez39c768.02$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.928,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Rio Noguchi75c669.23$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.338,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Luis Carlos Alvarez33c665$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.327749.1%136 W · 141 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb2…126abacked Rio Noguchi46c652.17$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.1723738.8%92 W · 145 L+0.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Luis Carlos Alvarez41c650$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.536946.9%173 W · 196 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Luis Carlos Alvarez33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.257,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Luis Carlos Alvarez37c519.3$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.638,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Luis Carlos Alvarez46c503.3$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.2470254.4%382 W · 320 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Luis Carlos Alvarez29c399.97$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.149,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Rio Noguchi64c363.53$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.734,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Luis Carlos Alvarez32c351.39$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.882,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Rio Noguchi63c349.36$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.81,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c99…8b23backed Rio Noguchi64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.516160.2%97 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Rio Noguchi68c292.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6891754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Rio Noguchi72c279.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.931,30838.9%509 W · 799 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Luis Carlos Alvarez26c249.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.51,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c38…1bfabacked Luis Carlos Alvarez42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-26%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Rio Noguchi70c226.83$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1264837.5%243 W · 405 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez52c210.6$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.816,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Rio Noguchi54c205.56$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5648242.5%205 W · 277 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Rio Noguchi66c201.75$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.864,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c7…d291backed Rio Noguchi69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6210945.9%50 W · 59 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Rio Noguchi62c195.34$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.91,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Rio Noguchi45c182.12$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.556,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez29c166.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3244729.3%131 W · 316 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Rio Noguchi64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2547058.5%275 W · 195 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78a4…ea47backed Rio Noguchi38c142.71$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.481752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Luis Carlos Alvarez43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Luis Carlos Alvarez35c114.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x715d…a4babacked Rio Noguchi56c105$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.934047.6%162 W · 178 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Luis Carlos Alvarez31c104.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.521,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked Rio Noguchi67c102.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9914757.8%85 W · 62 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfaa…28f7backed Luis Carlos Alvarez33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3393945.5%427 W · 512 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez29c99.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7699056%554 W · 436 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf76…ffeabacked Rio Noguchi45c76.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4134729.4%102 W · 245 L-35.6wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-35.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Luis Carlos Alvarez27c74.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.861,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Luis Carlos Alvarez34c73.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2537238.2%142 W · 230 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed Rio Noguchi65c71.64$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.076050%30 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Luis Carlos Alvarez48c69.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.518648.4%90 W · 96 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Luis Carlos Alvarez28c67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.435,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rio Noguchi68c57.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.397,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Luis Carlos Alvarez34c52.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7669545.8%318 W · 377 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Rio Noguchi67c50.67$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7248947.4%232 W · 257 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b2…9c8dbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez33c50.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.729627.1%26 W · 70 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Luis Carlos Alvarez34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Luis Carlos Alvarez38c47.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1942748.7%208 W · 219 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Luis Carlos Alvarez31c46.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.712933.3%43 W · 86 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Luis Carlos Alvarez61c46.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6223256.5%131 W · 101 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Luis Carlos Alvarez36c46.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.824,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x581e…5d85backed Rio Noguchi63c44.44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.445549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b56…a082backed Rio Noguchi64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.442563.3%269 W · 156 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Luis Carlos Alvarez34c37.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.881,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e7…f2e5backed Rio Noguchi66c37.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.88650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Rio Noguchi57c37.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.031,04236.5%380 W · 662 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f98…cb91backed Rio Noguchi46c37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.855038%19 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked Rio Noguchi65c35.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5434864.1%223 W · 125 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Luis Carlos Alvarez46c34.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9927549.1%135 W · 140 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez43c31.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6388358.2%514 W · 369 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Rio Noguchi57c31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3397852%509 W · 469 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Luis Carlos Alvarez48c29.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.321,07660.4%650 W · 426 L+24.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b0…799fbacked Luis Carlos Alvarez58c29.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720558.5%120 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78fb…56bcbacked Rio Noguchi64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.441668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+30.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fd7…1735backed Rio Noguchi69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7413966.2%92 W · 47 L+15.5wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+18.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xd9af…359cbacked Rio Noguchi80c21.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2851457.2%294 W · 220 L+29.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Rio Noguchi63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,25665.4%821 W · 435 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc04c…cebfbacked Rio Noguchi77c19.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5367178.7%528 W · 143 L+49.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Rio Noguchi57c18.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Rio Noguchi76c17.22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1795050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d32…25a8backed Rio Noguchi71c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.938267.1%55 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.