Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d73e6851da6dad9d4b5960826408382b9a601cb9185cce98f4aaa705cce86d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 1,110$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 649.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 36c | 332.94$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 319.63$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…a1e0backed Yes | 8c | 244.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 241.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 6c | 240.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 234.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 208.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 36c | 178.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 35c | 155.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 129.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 106.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 74.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 65.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 64.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 20c | 57.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 52.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 43.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 43.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 41.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed Yes | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 35c | 35.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 35.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 39c | 33.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 31.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 30.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 28.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 26.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 39c | 26.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 78c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 23.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…6e79backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 74c | 14.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.