Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0ef110bffdd09787ce6eda7a8558369c47ecb06a2281d6bb919c5b7f3b3728c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 60c | 533.21$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 60c | 506.78$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.47 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 51c | 345$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 301.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 37c | 298.89$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 258.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 242.03$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 48c | 218.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 190.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 54c | 178.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 26c | 140.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 39c | 138.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 46c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 59c | 130$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 128.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 127.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 112$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 41c | 92.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed No | 38c | 88.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 36c | 86.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 82.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 75.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 72.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 71.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 69.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 19c | 61.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 41c | 61.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 50c | 57.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 65c | 55.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 48c | 53.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 32c | 53.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 46c | 51.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 23c | 49.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 49.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 47.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 37c | 45.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 54c | 44.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 46c | 42.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 64c | 38.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 61c | 38.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…5e40backed Yes | 45c | 31.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 52c | 31.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed Yes | 45c | 31.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 31.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 29.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 37c | 29.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 45c | 27.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 25.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 23.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 49c | 23.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed Yes | 61c | 21.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 21.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.