Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9fa060bf557ce114112bdcc6f041de76094e34d6a502a5e75e7b3230fc9676c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 462.78$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 404.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 49c | 316.46$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.47 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 53c | 247.76$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 231.23$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 76c | 224.33$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 55c | 221.58$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.37 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 32c | 201.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.08 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 199.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 190.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 173.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 24c | 152.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 46c | 148.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 131.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 118$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 112.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 32c | 111.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 80c | 85.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 19c | 83.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 16c | 74.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 26c | 67.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 75c | 55.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 49.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed Yes | 30c | 46.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 39.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 48c | 39.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 34.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 46c | 32.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 48c | 31.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 24.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 68c | 18.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 15.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.