WNBA · resolved market
Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e2333cfe5de944083729d0217bd743abef29833d293d5d4a6d1125cf8f577a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof PortlandFire, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire | 47c | 5,544$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.31 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 4,962$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501.63 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 2,953$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.76 | 279 | 49.1%137 W · 142 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 2,024$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.53 | 214 | 47.7%102 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 43c | 1,702$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.92 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 1,201$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.59 | 391 | 50.4%197 W · 194 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 913.48$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.2 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 874.51$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.02 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.74 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 497.96$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…1c26backed PortlandFire | 53c | 425.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 365.39$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.08 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 337.09$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.69 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 215.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.33 | 796 | 48.7%388 W · 408 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed PortlandFire | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 177$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed PortlandFire | 47c | 159.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 149.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9af…f4f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 98.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 98.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 93.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 92.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked PortlandFire | 13c | 79.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 79.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…5443backed PortlandFire | 52c | 69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5547…3a41backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 58.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 55.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 332 | 48.8%162 W · 170 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 46.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 46.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 46.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 46.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…1469backed Phoenix Mercury | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…2d4dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 71c | 40.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed PortlandFire | 46c | 36.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 36.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb60a…730ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 68c | 33.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac12…1918backed Phoenix Mercury | 68c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…10b1backed Phoenix Mercury | 69c | 26.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…5a9fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 74c | 26.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa91a…c786backed Phoenix Mercury | 70c | 25.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 22.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…1572backed Phoenix Mercury | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…22cebacked Phoenix Mercury | 68c | 22.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad7…1ac7backed Phoenix Mercury | 68c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc1…ef97backed Phoenix Mercury | 68c | 21.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…7e4bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 69c | 21.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…7ecfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7922…4b7ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 69c | 19.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 19.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4788…6bc3backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 18.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…c916backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 18.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f67…ffc0backed Phoenix Mercury | 69c | 15.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…2bc3backed Phoenix Mercury | 72c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFirePhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 159.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 160.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 163.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 165.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.