WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 159.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9a5bfd310dab00419b3821f6224c081dd4071b062377487ca56ed7f85818da1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 49c | 2,842$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.17 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 2,693$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.3 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 2,336$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.28 | 214 | 47.7%102 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 2,323$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.97 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 52c | 2,100$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 10c | 1,539$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 3c | 1,089$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 454 | 15.6%71 W · 383 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 1,062$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 102 | 59.8%61 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 52c | 436.87$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.17 | 657 | 51.4%338 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 56c | 394.03$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.26 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 53c | 319.08$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.81 | 253 | 45.8%116 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 59c | 205$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 10c | 184$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…a053backed Under | 33c | 179.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 67c | 162.85$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 932 | 48.8%455 W · 477 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5022…ad19backed Over | 54c | 72.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…319bbacked Over | 54c | 54.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ea…b2e7backed Over | 74c | 53.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…fd3fbacked Over | 74c | 53.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 46c | 46.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf19f…d494backed Over | 63c | 35.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…6595backed Over | 62c | 31.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…611cbacked Over | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 63c | 23.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 49c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 427 | 49.4%211 W · 216 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29a…2627backed Over | 62c | 18.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4788…6bc3backed Over | 67c | 17.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 159.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFirePhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 160.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 163.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 165.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.