WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aff3f106ea82e06a8ab01e9f64c2a7ce756f3cf14e2b4bffa3305c295d8e94f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 2c | 2,512$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,149$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.2 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 1,077$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.02 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 54c | 1,042$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Under | 54c | 963$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.98 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 698.07$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.11 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 51c | 431.57$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.1 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 299.51$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 290.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…e2cebacked Over | 45c | 290.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 283.62$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 42c | 196.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Under | 58c | 172.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 6c | 172.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Over | 46c | 124$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 52c | 95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 47c | 79.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 46c | 72.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…7874backed Over | 51c | 39.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…6d10backed Over | 51c | 38.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 49c | 31.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 51c | 29.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6017…bf2cbacked Over | 50c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 54c | 25.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 53c | 23.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Over | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFirePhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 159.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 160.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 163.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 165.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.