WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 160.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82236d1952a564834293fc8594e47d2740c0c643c7ca8c118c74ab0b2bb45776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 3,002$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.44 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 2,701$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.08 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 2,326$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.62 | 214 | 47.7%102 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 2,020$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.41 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Over | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 53c | 656.74$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.07 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Over | 50c | 618$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 54c | 552.11$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.14 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 3c | 542.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 454 | 15.6%71 W · 383 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked Over | 49c | 319.28$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 204.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 657 | 51.4%338 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 56c | 203$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 57c | 179.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 47c | 141.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 56c | 102.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 53c | 102.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 56c | 92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Over | 57c | 79.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Over | 57c | 49.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Over | 57c | 49.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Over | 57c | 49.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 57c | 49.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead9…ab4bbacked Over | 72c | 44.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 52c | 43.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…8b92backed Over | 47c | 38.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49b…a5d4backed Over | 50c | 38.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…c385backed Over | 50c | 38.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1700…da15backed Over | 48c | 38.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f2…ca86backed Over | 47c | 38.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…cc7ebacked Over | 47c | 38.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f14…0874backed Over | 80c | 32.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49a…5c5fbacked Over | 67c | 31.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…07c6backed Over | 50c | 28.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe79…9701backed Over | 47c | 28.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x706a…962dbacked Over | 51c | 28.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…0d98backed Over | 73c | 27.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fb…96d5backed Over | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…859abacked Over | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b13…f643backed Over | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…ae12backed Over | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…248fbacked Over | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe95…860ebacked Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…9b99backed Over | 76c | 26.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec7…a9e1backed Over | 76c | 26.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 45c | 23.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4788…6bc3backed Over | 58c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…18a6backed Over | 80c | 20.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…c916backed Over | 57c | 19.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 57c | 17.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 160.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFirePhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 159.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 163.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 165.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.