WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b47ca4ab892bdd965098d247b37724196faadf513c1c2bfac7ede75e573cb06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Phoenix Mercury, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 4,673$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,732.44 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed PortlandFire | 58c | 2,112$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.81 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 2,049$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.83 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 1,008$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.92 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed PortlandFire | 59c | 943.51$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.43 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked PortlandFire | 52c | 912.61$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.56 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 912.61$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.56 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed PortlandFire | 59c | 848.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.91 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed PortlandFire | 59c | 505.37$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.17 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed PortlandFire | 58c | 386.88$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.95 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed PortlandFire | 60c | 332.49$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.28 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 220.16$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed PortlandFire | 60c | 204.9$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked PortlandFire | 59c | 189.12$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.58 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked PortlandFire | 66c | 188.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.11 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked PortlandFire | 60c | 184$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 150.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed PortlandFire | 65c | 145.12$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed PortlandFire | 57c | 133.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed PortlandFire | 60c | 104.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked PortlandFire | 10c | 103.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked PortlandFire | 16c | 86.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed PortlandFire | 60c | 86.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed PortlandFire | 60c | 83.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed PortlandFire | 46c | 66.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…1ba9backed PortlandFire | 57c | 65.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…9b37backed PortlandFire | 57c | 65.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…e28cbacked PortlandFire | 57c | 65.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…71a7backed PortlandFire | 57c | 65.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae9…9e06backed PortlandFire | 52c | 61.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed PortlandFire | 59c | 61.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa443…a3cbbacked PortlandFire | 51c | 60.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 55.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed PortlandFire | 59c | 52.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 51.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked PortlandFire | 60c | 51.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked PortlandFire | 60c | 51.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…a566backed PortlandFire | 54c | 48.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…e5f0backed PortlandFire | 55c | 46.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 46.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 46.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe00…a7a2backed PortlandFire | 57c | 45.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…3c41backed PortlandFire | 56c | 43.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 42.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2981…bfa3backed PortlandFire | 52c | 39.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…b00bbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 39.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed PortlandFire | 39c | 38.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…a3ddbacked PortlandFire | 56c | 38.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb8…3e7ebacked PortlandFire | 56c | 37.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb60…97cebacked PortlandFire | 51c | 37.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86d…1c65backed PortlandFire | 54c | 36.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…8cdfbacked PortlandFire | 56c | 35.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a3…4e25backed PortlandFire | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c55…ce5cbacked PortlandFire | 55c | 35.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…b7ebbacked PortlandFire | 56c | 34.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf49c…d0f9backed PortlandFire | 57c | 33.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked PortlandFire | 60c | 32.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67d4…d42cbacked PortlandFire | 54c | 31.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b1…f9d9backed PortlandFire | 56c | 29.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9525…c63ebacked PortlandFire | 52c | 28.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed PortlandFire | 56c | 26.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4788…6bc3backed PortlandFire | 60c | 26.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…7e33backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 25.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked PortlandFire | 59c | 25.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked PortlandFire | 60c | 25.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed PortlandFire | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7df1backed PortlandFire | 59c | 24.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked PortlandFire | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…bd55backed PortlandFire | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…dce9backed PortlandFire | 56c | 23.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9e…63c9backed PortlandFire | 53c | 22.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…ffdabacked PortlandFire | 52c | 22.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFirePhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 159.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 160.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 163.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 165.5Under won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.