Mls · resolved market
Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e2aea7a2f213ec3a48fed2208f5a062ee0ef1dd7ff305e3ef95a91111b0a4ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto FCof CF Montréal, Toronto FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed CF Montréal | 9c | 2,328$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.76 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed CF Montréal | 22c | 1,324$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.28 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto FC | 79c | 1,075$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CF Montréal | 18c | 1,029$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.63 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Toronto FC | 79c | 224.93$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto FC | 79c | 213.54$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Toronto FC | 79c | 205.85$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed CF Montréal | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Toronto FC | 80c | 164.23$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked CF Montréal | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed CF Montréal | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed CF Montréal | 23c | 83.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked CF Montréal | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed CF Montréal | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto FC | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Toronto FC | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed CF Montréal | 23c | 44.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed CF Montréal | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Toronto FC | 79c | 39.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Toronto FC | 79c | 16.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Toronto FC | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Toronto FC | 72c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)this page
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: CF Montréal O/U 0.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 0.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.