Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85bde1e5048a0d0e37445ea2124b039e6428e3170b0961afe8d917718f5fdd72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 19c | 3,945$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,195.38 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 4c | 3,855$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700.52 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 64c | 3,745$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.11 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 2,127$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.81 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9c…df69backed Over | 43c | 1,424$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 6c | 985.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.89 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 57c | 923.57$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 49c | 916.45$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.15 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Over | 41c | 773.08$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked Over | 50c | 600$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 10c | 594.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.95 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…3128backed Under | 79c | 508.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 70c | 453.99$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c4…caaebacked Over | 55c | 363.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 75c | 335.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 60c | 300.06$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Over | 34c | 294.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e97…8908backed Under | 39c | 256.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.42 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 54c | 256.09$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bad…1e9ebacked Over | 53c | 220$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Over | 57c | 201.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…753dbacked Over | 75c | 201.72$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0da8…54afbacked Under | 10c | 196.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +194.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…9c73backed Under | 51c | 194.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.18 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 76c | 184.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Under | 78c | 162.48$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…4191backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 37c | 119.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7098…1d97backed Under | 29c | 114.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 21c | 103.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 50c | 86.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…2576backed Over | 63c | 72.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…a119backed Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…da2fbacked Under | 49c | 55.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 34c | 46.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 56c | 44.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…210ebacked Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 36c | 44.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 31c | 37.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -12.3wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 56c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…9d1abacked Under | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 76c | 32.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ad…2dccbacked Over | 50c | 30.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 53c | 29.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…e40abacked Over | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 0.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: CF Montréal O/U 0.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.