Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd84a8896d6d126f6e7b3319f0f319885dc1383f4e18aae09f3aa82600d58e12a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 11c | 3,358$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.35 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 64c | 1,658$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.65 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 36c | 1,528$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 64c | 1,328$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.76 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 36c | 1,245$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.89 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…d262backed Over | 38c | 1,173$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…8220backed Over | 9c | 1,148$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 31c | 944.09$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.13 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 37c | 900$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 9c | 789.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 62c | 603.46$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.16 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 64c | 592.25$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.21 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 62c | 497$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.86 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 64c | 227.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 37c | 172.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 62c | 132.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 63c | 111.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Under | 64c | 109.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 36c | 108.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 71c | 100.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…ff88backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 36c | 80.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 30c | 75.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 37c | 64.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Under | 79c | 56.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Under | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 36c | 34.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…2650backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: CF Montréal O/U 0.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 0.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.