South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e2e4df817e3a302d7eca734660cc582c13da692562608265be8ec4d3f86a1bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,543 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ee…0bd0backed Yes | 49c | 19,731$9,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,668.31 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 49c | 10,258$5,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,023.62 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 8,850$4,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,096.59 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 6,936$4,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925.55 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 48c | 5,131$2,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,462.88 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 55c | 4,373$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.89 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed No | 69c | 2,899$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.55 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 61c | 1,999$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.23 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 51c | 1,463$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.88 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 53c | 1,299$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.68 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Yes | 47c | 868.83$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.35 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 47c | 701.37$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.15 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 3c | 610.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked No | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 51c | 510$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.7 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed No | 51c | 454.1$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.51 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…9d70backed Yes | 10c | 437.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Yes | 8c | 344.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…f856backed Yes | 47c | 266.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 53c | 233.87$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 49c | 219.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 52c | 202.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed No | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 52c | 169.75$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 53c | 167.68$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 29c | 155.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 72c | 130.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 51c | 126.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 17c | 71.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…a6febacked Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…cf56backed Yes | 34c | 64.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…4bc6backed No | 76c | 63.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked Yes | 25c | 60.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Yes | 40c | 60.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 48c | 59.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…7e02backed No | 52c | 57.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…afcebacked Yes | 48c | 55.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 51c | 51.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed No | 53c | 49.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 54c | 40.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 55c | 38.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed No | 54c | 38.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…0781backed Yes | 32c | 37.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked No | 74c | 35.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Yes | 47c | 31.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed No | 51c | 27.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…37d5backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 51c | 26.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…dc79backed Yes | 50c | 21.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed No | 54c | 20.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 19.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed No | 54c | 18.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-11?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-03-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.