Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tirante (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e64a5c828b50234485c1e1f099199b9a206d2290a65d236329b3e57683dfbf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bustaof Tirante, Busta
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Busta | 49c | 20,310$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,310 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tirante | 50c | 11,656$5,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,828.03 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Tirante | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tirante | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Tirante | 52c | 999.98$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Tirante | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Tirante | 53c | 726.42$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 351 | 64.1%225 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Tirante | 54c | 637.04$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Tirante | 52c | 424$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.7 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Busta | 54c | 418.2$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.74 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Tirante | 51c | 403.36$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.71 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Tirante | 45c | 372.2$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.49 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Tirante | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Tirante | 52c | 250$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Tirante | 52c | 241.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.45 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…07c2backed Busta | 47c | 236.17$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.17 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Tirante | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Tirante | 53c | 187.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Busta | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Tirante | 55c | 126.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Busta | 47c | 115.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…1256backed Tirante | 54c | 110.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Tirante | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Tirante | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x394d…d033backed Tirante | 54c | 88.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Tirante | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Tirante | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Busta | 49c | 55.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…d6fabacked Tirante | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Tirante | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -19.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…31f9backed Tirante | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Busta | 46c | 33.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tirante | 51c | 33.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…0670backed Busta | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Busta | 48c | 26.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tirante (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5)this page
- Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno BustaPablo Carreno Busta won
- Set 1 Winner: Tirante vs BustaBusta won
- Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Tirante vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Tirante vs. Busta: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Tirante vs. Busta: Match O/U 40.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.