Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e755e62e44c47830ce18e8e82291ce1a063182d408ffe6083ceacdcd2f6ff5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Collignonof Collignon, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Collignon | 42c | 5,460$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,140.58 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Ruud | 70c | 4,245$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961.06 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Collignon | 32c | 3,466$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,358.44 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Ruud | 79c | 2,863$2,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,264.52 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Ruud | 30c | 2,421$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.21 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…7260backed Ruud | 77c | 1,295$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Collignon | 16c | 1,216$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.3 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Collignon | 14c | 1,033$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.73 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Collignon | 16c | 938$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.92 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…c116backed Collignon | 29c | 930.72$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.81 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ruud | 72c | 904$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.51 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Collignon | 30c | 899.88$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.53 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Collignon | 19c | 852.05$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.16 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Collignon | 37c | 672.13$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.14 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Ruud | 51c | 600$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Collignon | 19c | 531.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.29 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Collignon | 20c | 503.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.85 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e0bdbacked Ruud | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Collignon | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Ruud | 17c | 430.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Collignon | 15c | 399.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.98 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Collignon | 29c | 380.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.79 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Collignon | 28c | 360$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Ruud | 72c | 357.65$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.37 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Ruud | 67c | 357.42$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…4a52backed Ruud | 43c | 344.78$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Collignon | 30c | 342.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.12 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Collignon | 39c | 320.51$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.51 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Ruud | 67c | 299.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Collignon | 16c | 258.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.06 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Ruud | 71c | 230.03$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.12 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Ruud | 72c | 194.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Ruud | 68c | 190$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Ruud | 65c | 154.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Ruud | 68c | 147.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b4…786dbacked Ruud | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Ruud | 74c | 136.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Collignon | 17c | 110.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Collignon | 35c | 87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Collignon | 35c | 79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed Ruud | 65c | 77.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Collignon | 30c | 70.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Collignon | 25c | 63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Collignon | 53c | 57.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Collignon | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ruud | 70c | 40.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Ruud | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Ruud | 77c | 27.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…28ebbacked Ruud | 68c | 26.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Ruud | 76c | 24.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Collignon | 51c | 20.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.