Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International: Kimberly Birrell vs Anastasia Potapova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7d77e09a64647baeeae58263df9d8d65c931b78ae78c7c6427eb6d67bb6164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Birrellof Birrell, Potapova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x699b…db49backed Potapova | 51c | 7,817$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Birrell | 55c | 3,654$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.75 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Birrell | 63c | 2,848$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.48 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Birrell | 45c | 1,369$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.17 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…5b82backed Potapova | 39c | 1,268$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.61 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Birrell | 42c | 961$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.38 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Birrell | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 306 | 45.1%138 W · 168 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ceb…3656backed Potapova | 28c | 500$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Birrell | 50c | 486.46$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.76 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Potapova | 51c | 342$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.48 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Birrell | 60c | 315.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.68 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Potapova | 35c | 272.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Potapova | 58c | 269$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.02 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Potapova | 52c | 205.17$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…d106backed Birrell | 47c | 195$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Potapova | 33c | 178.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Potapova | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3457…0161backed Potapova | 32c | 166.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Potapova | 55c | 153$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…ef23backed Potapova | 19c | 134.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Birrell | 43c | 133.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…e98fbacked Potapova | 41c | 129.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Potapova | 32c | 118.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Potapova | 55c | 118$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Birrell | 53c | 115.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Birrell | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Potapova | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Birrell | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Birrell | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…4fcabacked Birrell | 62c | 81.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Potapova | 21c | 80.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…02ccbacked Potapova | 41c | 71.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Potapova | 33c | 60.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb434…2b36backed Birrell | 69c | 58.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…786ebacked Potapova | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Potapova | 21c | 50.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Birrell | 43c | 50.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Potapova | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Birrell | 45c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Birrell | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Potapova | 44c | 47.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Birrell | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Potapova | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Birrell | 61c | 44.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Birrell | 51c | 40.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Potapova | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…e7d4backed Birrell | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Potapova | 40c | 32.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed Birrell | 60c | 31.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -59%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Birrell | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…54ccbacked Potapova | 41c | 29.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Birrell | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Birrell | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Birrell | 62c | 27.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…576bbacked Birrell | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Birrell | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Birrell | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Birrell | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Potapova | 47c | 23.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Birrell | 61c | 21.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…b6d5backed Birrell | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…e67dbacked Birrell | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International: Kimberly Birrell vs Anastasia Potapovathis page
- Birrell vs. Potapova: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Birrell vs. Potapova: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Birrell vs. Potapova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Birrell vs PotapovaBirrell won
- Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Birrell (+1.5)Birrell won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.