NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Spurs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eaae1b5d9734c87a4d1dea57ab011f967a9694c93d7eeb9dfc0861c30a633f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Timberwolves, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Spurs | 37c | 16,276$6,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,253.26 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b46…db60backed Timberwolves | 63c | 16,000$10,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,080 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Timberwolves | 63c | 4,211$2,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,660.56 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Spurs | 44c | 3,400$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Spurs | 59c | 3,317$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.39 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Timberwolves | 1c | 2,796$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe51…3982backed Timberwolves | 51c | 1,191$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.39 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…fb79backed Timberwolves | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Timberwolves | 5c | 750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc34…ff67backed Spurs | 77c | 638.55$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Spurs | 50c | 610$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Spurs | 38c | 499.89$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.93 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Spurs | 49c | 498.28$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.12 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Spurs | 41c | 437.48$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.39 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…4a03backed Timberwolves | 15c | 417.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Timberwolves | 53c | 405.96$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.08 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b3b5backed Timberwolves | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6d…81c2backed Timberwolves | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed Timberwolves | 50c | 368.12$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.24 | 243 | 36.2%88 W · 155 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Spurs | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Timberwolves | 63c | 271.68$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Timberwolves | 5c | 268.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Timberwolves | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Timberwolves | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Timberwolves | 14c | 155.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 164 | 44.5%73 W · 91 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Timberwolves | 61c | 155.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…16fbbacked Spurs | 38c | 149.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 178 | 46.1%82 W · 96 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c32…4958backed Spurs | 39c | 145$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Timberwolves | 63c | 142.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Spurs | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cf…190cbacked Timberwolves | 61c | 110$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…7cd3backed Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88c…4426backed Spurs | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7405…2797backed Timberwolves | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…19b0backed Timberwolves | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Spurs | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Spurs | 38c | 99.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…3c94backed Spurs | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Spurs | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 184 | 37.5%69 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…fa9bbacked Timberwolves | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Timberwolves | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Timberwolves | 51c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a49…413fbacked Timberwolves | 18c | 66.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Timberwolves | 62c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f8…5660backed Spurs | 32c | 64.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…14b1backed Timberwolves | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39c…0498backed Spurs | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Timberwolves | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Timberwolves | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 186 | 28%52 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…ef54backed Timberwolves | 62c | 46.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…9376backed Spurs | 40c | 40.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…f0ddbacked Spurs | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Spurs | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 138 | 47.8%66 W · 72 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…39a1backed Spurs | 39c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 487 | 41.9%204 W · 283 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed Timberwolves | 61c | 36.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Spurs | 37c | 36.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed Timberwolves | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d4…0782backed Timberwolves | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf319…1d1abacked Timberwolves | 40c | 33.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Timberwolves | 60c | 32.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…a1e0backed Timberwolves | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…0f73backed Timberwolves | 61c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…a2e3backed Timberwolves | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8d23backed Timberwolves | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…9bc6backed Spurs | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…c5abbacked Spurs | 57c | 27.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…b2c2backed Timberwolves | 62c | 25.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Spurs | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Timberwolves | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Timberwolves | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1e96backed Timberwolves | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b0…2071backed Timberwolves | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…ab13backed Timberwolves | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.