Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ee28eac99d71fb1ee689aaad9ba9167188f770ff8e8e595bdd398eec50da082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 29c | 595.59$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.95 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 66c | 271.49$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…3e10backed Yes | 70c | 268.1$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 79c | 259.59$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 66c | 251.15$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 5c | 218.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 76c | 187.37$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 67c | 175.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 72c | 174.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 29c | 156.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 156.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 55c | 139.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 36c | 130.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 123.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 118.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 74c | 111.68$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 69c | 96.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 50c | 95.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 54c | 88.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 37c | 77.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 76.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 25c | 72.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 26c | 68.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 23c | 67.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed No | 24c | 64.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 63.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 34c | 62.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 69c | 59.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 37c | 59.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…2501backed Yes | 66c | 55.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 67c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 61c | 49.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 68c | 49.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 64c | 49.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 41c | 48.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 37c | 47.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…cb9fbacked No | 27c | 40.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…7236backed Yes | 36c | 39.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 54c | 39.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…bd8cbacked Yes | 74c | 37.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf4…b597backed No | 30c | 34.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 39c | 34.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 56c | 33.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 51c | 31.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 31.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 78c | 31.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 54c | 31.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…e65abacked Yes | 39c | 30.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked Yes | 76c | 30.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e92…0b78backed Yes | 68c | 29.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3895…7332backed Yes | 69c | 28.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…d103backed Yes | 75c | 28.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe14e…4286backed Yes | 72c | 26.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 63c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked Yes | 78c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…f353backed Yes | 45c | 22.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…981cbacked No | 66c | 20.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…3a7ebacked Yes | 74c | 19.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…e30bbacked Yes | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…0b40backed Yes | 62c | 18.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…10bfbacked Yes | 76c | 17.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 70c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 71c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 65c | 16.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 69c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…b345backed No | 66c | 15.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed Yes | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed Yes | 69c | 14.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 79c | 13.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 12.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.