CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: mellren vs VP.Prodigy - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f0bacba74936251023ecf18385ba0cafbc22a2a6ef624d8c1203c30656d8ec6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- mellrenof mellren, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf43f…6c9dbacked mellren | 45c | 2,214$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.63 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked VP.Prodigy | 43c | 1,987$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.38 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed VP.Prodigy | 52c | 1,514$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.72 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…0717backed mellren | 58c | 847.63$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.85 | 295 | 43.1%127 W · 168 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0f59backed mellren | 62c | 737.06$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.71 | 218 | 45.9%100 W · 118 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…f750backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 538.79$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…6de0backed mellren | 54c | 381.82$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.63 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked mellren | 62c | 351.91$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.62 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed VP.Prodigy | 42c | 320$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.94 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…7039backed mellren | 55c | 279.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed mellren | 67c | 191.14$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…0635backed mellren | 56c | 179.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 317 | 49.5%157 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed VP.Prodigy | 52c | 175$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked mellren | 62c | 172.77$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked VP.Prodigy | 30c | 171.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed VP.Prodigy | 42c | 169.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed mellren | 64c | 167.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked VP.Prodigy | 19c | 154$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 151$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed VP.Prodigy | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 309 | 39.2%121 W · 188 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked VP.Prodigy | 66c | 86.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed VP.Prodigy | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked VP.Prodigy | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed VP.Prodigy | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked mellren | 58c | 68.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed mellren | 34c | 63.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked VP.Prodigy | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 393 | 38.2%150 W · 243 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de1…e01bbacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 46.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed mellren | 63c | 45.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 40.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked VP.Prodigy | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 306 | 38.9%119 W · 187 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 37.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked mellren | 40c | 35.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 238 | 35.3%84 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…cbc6backed VP.Prodigy | 45c | 31.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked VP.Prodigy | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked VP.Prodigy | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked VP.Prodigy | 50c | 23.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed VP.Prodigy | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 22.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked mellren | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked mellren | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: mellren vs VP.Prodigy - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: mellren vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #7 Playoffsmellren won
- Counter-Strike: mellren vs VP.Prodigy - Map 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.