TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: mellren vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #7 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
mellrenof mellren, VP.Prodigy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,116
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,116 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x051c…ca3fbacked VP.Prodigy51c4,252$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165.8535847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76a…8e00backed mellren69c3,256$2,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.82955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf43f…6c9dbacked mellren46c3,148$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.432969%20 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+31.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked VP.Prodigy47c2,950$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.411,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x050e…d92fbacked mellren58c2,604$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09722257.2%127 W · 95 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed VP.Prodigy46c2,288$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.721,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed mellren46c1,913$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.91,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked VP.Prodigy44c1,843$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.9575245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked VP.Prodigy41c1,737$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.4435131.1%109 W · 242 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf5…d9f2backed mellren61c1,719$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.032466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x575a…570ebacked mellren43c1,650$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.481963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+25.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0f59backed mellren47c1,614$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.8321845.9%100 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed mellren48c1,433$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.3329543.1%127 W · 168 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4176…1ddcbacked mellren60c1,354$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.31560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed mellren79c1,288$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.8219057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed mellren62c1,230$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.521159.7%126 W · 85 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed mellren54c1,196$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55043455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3783…0038backed VP.Prodigy48c1,192$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.377638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked VP.Prodigy44c1,115$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.123,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xece5…6de0backed mellren46c1,085$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.0613449.3%66 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9be9…a1e5backed VP.Prodigy47c1,085$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.151833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5bf…0806backed mellren56c1,047$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x824a…3952backed mellren44c943.22$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.3614139.7%56 W · 85 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked VP.Prodigy46c886.03$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.052,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked VP.Prodigy57c853$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.2124447.1%115 W · 129 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed mellren57c819.51$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.4141050.7%208 W · 202 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked VP.Prodigy41c814.34$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.962,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x53d3…cc48backed VP.Prodigy41c727.25$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.762236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked VP.Prodigy40c715.44$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.743,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a30…7039backed mellren57c711.85$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.574454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1982…be15backed mellren41c685$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.653154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd73e…bb87backed mellren66c496.9$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.3213857.2%79 W · 59 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed VP.Prodigy50c489$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.0533146.5%154 W · 177 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked VP.Prodigy60c488.66$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.6475833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b88…16e6backed VP.Prodigy45c472.19$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.5415823.4%37 W · 121 L-18.0wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-44.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed VP.Prodigy50c470$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1321850.9%111 W · 107 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed VP.Prodigy48c436.93$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.3144244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f50…e12bbacked VP.Prodigy53c429.41$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.254942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed VP.Prodigy35c422.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6339440.4%159 W · 235 L+30.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4114…f750backed VP.Prodigy55c421.52$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.635639.3%22 W · 34 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed mellren50c420$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.431749.5%157 W · 160 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…a355backed VP.Prodigy57c380.37$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed VP.Prodigy53c379.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6183543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy39c375.62$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.716,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked VP.Prodigy43c368.12$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5837922.2%84 W · 295 L-43.1wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-47.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked VP.Prodigy67c318.97$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2339338.2%150 W · 243 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed mellren43c316.45$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.059339.8%37 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b26…8c32backed mellren65c315.65$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.4712750.4%64 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed mellren69c301.57$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9535153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1242…9077backed VP.Prodigy43c284.58$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12211745.3%53 W · 64 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3870…c3dbbacked VP.Prodigy56c269.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d16…e42bbacked mellren43c268.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.2911460.5%69 W · 45 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked VP.Prodigy63c264.6$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5717955.3%99 W · 80 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2c3…0566backed mellren73c262.04$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.049662.5%60 W · 36 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked VP.Prodigy40c256.42$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.274,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42e9…80c7backed VP.Prodigy43c236.05$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.56753.7%36 W · 31 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0af3…9cb5backed VP.Prodigy68c234.11$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.345860.3%35 W · 23 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked VP.Prodigy66c223.09$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+153.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed VP.Prodigy21c220$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.266436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed VP.Prodigy41c205.5$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5125142.6%107 W · 144 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed mellren56c204.63$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.542,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed VP.Prodigy43c200.93$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.412748%61 W · 66 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked VP.Prodigy63c187.48$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.141,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed VP.Prodigy43c186.17$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.255,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed mellren27c184.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.266746.3%31 W · 36 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked VP.Prodigy67c168.67$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0132458%188 W · 136 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb0…6197backed VP.Prodigy50c167.8$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.98958.4%52 W · 37 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe54e…4a99backed VP.Prodigy53c162.65$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.084761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed mellren34c158.44$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5732844.8%147 W · 181 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed VP.Prodigy45c157.45$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.852,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8100…1d33backed mellren65c154.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.955766.7%38 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed VP.Prodigy66c152.69$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0319451.5%100 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed mellren62c151.6$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1737057%211 W · 159 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked VP.Prodigy45c150.23$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.217644.7%34 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc92…cc39backed VP.Prodigy7c150.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113625%9 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8249…9169backed VP.Prodigy55c146.56$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc2b…cec3backed VP.Prodigy36c145.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.458045%36 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c65…e901backed VP.Prodigy50c142.2$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39f6…c6efbacked VP.Prodigy27c139$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0718939.2%74 W · 115 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed mellren42c133.55$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.732,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked VP.Prodigy39c127.72$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2412343.9%54 W · 69 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed VP.Prodigy73c125.97$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8148851.8%253 W · 235 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked mellren55c125.61$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.042,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed VP.Prodigy50c122.8$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9720353.2%108 W · 95 L+1.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b6…8ef6backed VP.Prodigy58c120.16$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.847851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed VP.Prodigy36c119$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.559146.2%42 W · 49 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf76…ffeabacked VP.Prodigy31c118$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8822837.3%85 W · 143 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c4…8930backed VP.Prodigy59c115.25$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686338.1%24 W · 39 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed VP.Prodigy49c107.55$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8818951.3%97 W · 92 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed VP.Prodigy41c106.21$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.747139.4%28 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed mellren51c101.14$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.272,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7bbb…ad2ebacked VP.Prodigy31c100.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.169043.3%39 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9d…2ee4backed VP.Prodigy37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc73a…ba42backed mellren42c99.58$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6612455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed VP.Prodigy38c99.09$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0679951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed VP.Prodigy37c98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.82,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fbe…f82cbacked VP.Prodigy53c95.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed VP.Prodigy48c89.7$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7440264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed VP.Prodigy58c87.87$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.866942%29 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed mellren43c87$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7188330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.