Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1cc9bb2e4361834e8df39384a6301a8181ee0d558bbf68396547c4b96a6e5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,644$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.46 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 7c | 647.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.16 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 32c | 534.29$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.18 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 387.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 337.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 333.9$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 245.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 244.7$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 38c | 239.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.08 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 228.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 200.05$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 165$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 54c | 161.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5237…9e56backed No | 31c | 148.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 137.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 56c | 118.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 65c | 117.64$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 49c | 107.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed No | 55c | 91.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 89.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 85.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 71c | 81.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 62c | 72.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 26c | 67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 42.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 80c | 40.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 59c | 38.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 37.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 33.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 28.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ddfebacked No | 71c | 18.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 16.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.