Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd128564f6b8c1ab87ce358910cc1cd73db33a6064b050692ed2d3554eef08c7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 5c | 2,096$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 1,038$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 773.53$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 756.81$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 535.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.72 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 333.45$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 4c | 315.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 6c | 272.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 216.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 208.4$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 199.64$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 25c | 183.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 21c | 131$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 25c | 112.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 65c | 109.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 102.95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 28c | 101.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…c771backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 96.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 95.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 92.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 12c | 83.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 74.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 72.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 53c | 62.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 25c | 55.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 66c | 50.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 47.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 40.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 61c | 24.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.