Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c533be9db9b510e387fbbaaf5c5f82023924168d0c5c4a1bcf8c3d618a1c8ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 75c | 2,097$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,072$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.08 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,323$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 1,235$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 73c | 947.75$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.95 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 507.64$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.16 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 349.87$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 320.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 29c | 300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 24c | 274.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 261$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 228.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 27c | 225$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 220.43$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 28c | 206.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 27c | 181.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 179.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 30c | 164.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 26c | 162.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 159.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 31c | 128$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 26c | 123$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 118.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 25c | 112.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 25c | 112.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…c771backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 74.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 72.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 70.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 69.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 62.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 26c | 56.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 55.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 55.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 77c | 52.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 50.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…699ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 48.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 47.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 46.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 44.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 38.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 24.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 21.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 66c | 19.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 77c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 15.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 13.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.