Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd413a94e8f83d1c15b413245202905e6ab8d81bb184ad5f7a9a080d9c95f1f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,321$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.56 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 28c | 1,029$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.82 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 802.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 638.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 586.43$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.26 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 22c | 442.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 350$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 350$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 296.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 243.9$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 169$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 134.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 128.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 74c | 120.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 76c | 107.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 105.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…c771backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 38c | 92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 74.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 72.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…699ebacked Yes | 36c | 63.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 63c | 60.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08d2…dd0fbacked Yes | 32c | 58.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 54.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 53.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 52.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 47.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 46.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 46.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 34c | 44.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 33c | 41.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 78c | 38.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 67c | 38.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 36.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 63c | 30.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc37…a2f4backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 74c | 27.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 67c | 27.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 67c | 22.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 66c | 19.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 19.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 69c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 66c | 16.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.