MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1fcd48f34b8799c27f42d84da4ea0b3385a028132f8b52f63ff7794db54391
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 3,015$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 2,988$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.81 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 3c | 1,003$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 929$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.11 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 405.02$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.01 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…3046backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 397.52$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.51 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 360.2$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.7 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed St. Louis Cardinals | 18c | 203.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 188.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 172 | 45.9%79 W · 93 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 169.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 154.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 121$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 106.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 95.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 83.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 50.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 46.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.