MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fb424ae63577e41985221b30b406bee21e61d5e866c1dc4ce5b47e063506cd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 54c | 4,580$2,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.8 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 45c | 4,122$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.46 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 55c | 3,477$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.65 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 45c | 1,816$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,123$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 713.34$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.29 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1b…ec19backed Over | 55c | 550.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 548$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.1 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 45c | 517$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.65 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 80c | 506.78$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.77 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Over | 54c | 436.36$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.73 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 31c | 433$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 202$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288b…1fa5backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 20c | 102.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 32c | 97.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 46c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over | 55c | 49.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 46.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab42…fd88backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 55c | 35.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 35c | 34.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…638dbacked Over | 55c | 24.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 23.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.