Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f426b7a8877f741fe11a77e29a5805824473a6d1c4ad092cc374c1463cf9da2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 15c | 749.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 19c | 296.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 170$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 158.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 27c | 144.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 144.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 140.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 126.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 32c | 119.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 104.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 91.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 85.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 79c | 76.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 36c | 74.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…422ebacked Yes | 45c | 73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 72.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 60.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 34c | 58.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5079…5988backed Yes | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c7…efa6backed No | 55c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 63c | 50.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 65c | 47.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 47.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 47.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…5f3cbacked No | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…5d00backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 55c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 77c | 41.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…1d8fbacked Yes | 37c | 38.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 69c | 38.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 38.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 42c | 36.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 64c | 35.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked Yes | 46c | 35.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…ebb2backed No | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 31.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 31.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 35c | 30.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 37c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 42c | 30.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 43c | 28.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 45c | 27.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 43c | 25.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 56c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 21.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…fad2backed No | 71c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 15.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.