Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8da02ba2cee3ecc96e8756b856917a76ef405010e006b0d86d8044fe5a762562
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes | 55c | 1,811$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.52 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…1be8backed Yes | 59c | 988.01$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 11c | 794.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 35c | 556.75$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 77c | 368.93$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…f32bbacked No | 55c | 364.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 340.21$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 63c | 291.02$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 74c | 162.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 45c | 132.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 112.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 97.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 32c | 84.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 82.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 76.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 74.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 45c | 73.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 42c | 71.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 67.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 62c | 67.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 23c | 57.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 40c | 56.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 45c | 55.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed Yes | 67c | 52.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 45c | 50.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 32c | 50.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 45c | 47.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 45.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…b863backed Yes | 69c | 39.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 38.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 42c | 37.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 63c | 36.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 48c | 35.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 52c | 33.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 51c | 33.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…492ebacked No | 48c | 31.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 41c | 29.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…8e47backed Yes | 78c | 29.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 29.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 39c | 28.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 39c | 25.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 20.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 64c | 17.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb44…dc60backed No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.