Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f79e4f9d51b73ffb7e885de3829a7e0f59925c353bf9b41e2e16b8cc1be2fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 461.8$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 66c | 404.99$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 64c | 312.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 301.3$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 37c | 248.83$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.8 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 49c | 194.49$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 48c | 178.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 155.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 54c | 121.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 69c | 108.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 86.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 86.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 19c | 84.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 52c | 83.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 62c | 80.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 31c | 77.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 74.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 28c | 73.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked Yes | 67c | 73.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 48c | 66.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 60.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 35c | 60.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 71c | 59.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 48c | 53.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 48c | 53.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 53.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 69c | 52.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked Yes | 51c | 49.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 47.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 46.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 49c | 44.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 41.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 40.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…171dbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 39.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 38.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 42c | 37.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 36.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 35c | 35.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 50c | 33.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 46c | 32.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…d603backed Yes | 54c | 22.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 19.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 19.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 64c | 15.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed No | 76c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.