Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f87be011beff597deef814f50d80ffa30372b592dd1f7c8c1edfbec1a5138ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,854$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 850.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 6c | 741.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 496.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 2c | 475.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 444.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 380.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 3c | 369.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 357.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 354.11$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 11c | 288.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 11c | 283.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 232.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 10c | 219.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 49c | 201.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 197.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 20c | 184.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 75c | 179.47$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 10c | 174.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 158.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 15c | 156.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 14c | 145.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 141.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 61c | 139.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 40c | 128.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 26c | 127.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 10c | 109.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 23c | 103.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 102$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 66c | 99.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 92.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 57c | 74.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 40c | 73.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 22c | 72.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 72.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 71.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 39c | 59.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 55.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 32c | 49.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd2…9637backed Yes | 24c | 48.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 70c | 46.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 45.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 44c | 44.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 41.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…17febacked Yes | 29c | 37.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 48c | 30.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 30.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 73c | 30.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked No | 68c | 28.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 25.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 44c | 22.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 74c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 70c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.