Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7add1e5b70201ab2ca1daac57a1ca85586b15211ced184598ea6a1d97bae9848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 5c | 2,838$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 4c | 1,841$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 1c | 1,125$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 613.53$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 5c | 578.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.22 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 33c | 548.08$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 407.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 373.73$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 354.1$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 58c | 344.44$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.44 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 39c | 309.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.02 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 304.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e36cbacked Yes | 49c | 300$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 269.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.3 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 4c | 269.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 57c | 263.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 12c | 258$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…561cbacked Yes | 6c | 244.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,606.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 76c | 217.24$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 40c | 213.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.29 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 76c | 210.37$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 40c | 193.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 61c | 175.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 8c | 172.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.52 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 60c | 165.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 164.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 161.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.48 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 74c | 155.63$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 45c | 155$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 79c | 140.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 42c | 136.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 134.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 46c | 125$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 111.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 45c | 105.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 48c | 102.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 43c | 89.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 22c | 89.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 88.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 45c | 78.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 15c | 76.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 23c | 76.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 48c | 75.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed Yes | 60c | 75.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 72.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 15c | 70.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 67c | 70.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 20c | 65.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 59.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 38c | 54.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 74c | 49.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 57c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 41.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0326…370fbacked No | 72c | 35.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 56c | 35.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 51c | 32.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 35c | 29.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 27.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 27.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…9f69backed Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 43c | 26.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 25.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 44c | 23.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 75c | 23.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 46c | 22.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 55c | 22.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 54c | 21.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…92e9backed Yes | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 59c | 19.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.