Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb14fa9126b0f1bc48b61c4f027de346c8d80ae55fc7b082b73394ff6f7fefc14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f7…1494backed Yes | 38c | 1,807$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 37c | 1,141$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.56 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 986.48$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 568.27$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 458.4$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 446.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 39c | 300$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 32c | 299.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 259.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 38c | 239.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 28c | 235.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 7c | 220.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 201.2$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 34c | 199.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 26c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 33c | 140.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 114.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 62c | 101.19$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 100.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 66c | 90.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 86.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 86.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 36c | 86.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 33c | 71.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 70.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 70.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 29c | 60.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 64c | 59.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 74c | 56.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 41c | 56.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 38c | 53.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 51.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 51.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 48.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 48.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 41c | 46.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 41c | 46.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 44.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 43.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 66c | 40.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 36.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 34.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 63c | 31.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 65c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 64c | 26.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 40c | 25.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 25.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed No | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 62c | 23.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 22.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 22.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 64c | 21.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db0…6ac5backed No | 66c | 19.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 18.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.