Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x520504bd7705a6cf613e39e9a56057b4477b90edcf0694f95994c230668bc660
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,347$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 898.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 584$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 400.43$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 60c | 334.09$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 328.13$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 29c | 268.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 6c | 225$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 34c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 20c | 195$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 180.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 162.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 17c | 148.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 132$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 36c | 118.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 25c | 113$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 109.59$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 108.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 106.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 56c | 103.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 101.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 50c | 100.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 34c | 98.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 76.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 75.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…0837backed Yes | 47c | 73.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 72.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 67c | 67.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 66.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 63.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 61.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 30c | 56.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 37c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 55.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 55.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 73c | 54.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 22c | 54.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 30c | 52.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 78c | 46.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 76c | 42.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 40.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 39.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 27c | 39.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 37.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 35.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 34.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 38c | 34.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 67c | 33.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 38c | 32.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 38c | 32.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 31.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ecd…53d5backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…478ebacked No | 79c | 30.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 30.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 28.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 60c | 27.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 25.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 24.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 47c | 23.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 22.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 22.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 21.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 64c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…7bb2backed No | 64c | 15.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 13.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 13.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.