Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be 46.0% or higher on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f96701185fc4db945e2e0d10d83429cc219beea4b7b7aac91c05b13650221a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 2c | 10,933$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.85 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6646…f2e4backed No | 31c | 965$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…b6d3backed No | 31c | 760$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…208cbacked Yes | 69c | 615$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 17c | 539.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 60c | 488.56$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.35 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b69…3d19backed Yes | 69c | 470$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 3c | 425$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 35c | 314.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…05cebacked Yes | 69c | 275$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 271$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…893abacked Yes | 69c | 255$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…f2d0backed No | 31c | 240$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3197…d75abacked No | 31c | 240$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a2…2e58backed Yes | 69c | 235$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…56f5backed Yes | 69c | 235$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…375cbacked Yes | 24c | 224.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 35c | 179.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 41c | 177.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1afb…e524backed Yes | 74c | 177.08$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 76c | 161.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…964ebacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…0e3bbacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 67c | 145$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 37c | 129.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 64c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed Yes | 76c | 104.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 104.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 73c | 100.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…c779backed Yes | 72c | 100.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +564.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…2992backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 61c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 59c | 82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 36c | 69.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 39c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 27c | 38.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022c…a15fbacked Yes | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be 46.0% or higher on May 23?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 23?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 23?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on May 23?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on May 23?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.0% on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.