Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc5c4c68e2f530f99f57304b11cf8535adf05cd0f4d65fceaba08fb866e1b7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 4,936$3,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.87 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 27c | 3,635$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.43 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 15c | 1,923$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.86 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Under | 79c | 503.84$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 461.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 67c | 399.98$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 24c | 291.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…6044backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…5f1abacked Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Over | 27c | 129.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 70c | 101.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 18c | 96.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…a787backed Over | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 29c | 86.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 34c | 85.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Over | 18c | 69.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Over | 34c | 53.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 34c | 45.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 26c | 44.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked Under | 74c | 37.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 80c | 35.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 66c | 30.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 75c | 26.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Qingdao Hainiu FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.